Polytrade dashboard

model claude-sonnet-4-6 · updated 2026-11-11 04:43 UTC
$ Real pilot
Markets fetched
1357
Predictions made
930
Open
277
awaiting resolution
Resolved
653
scored
Model cost so far
$110.63
click: tokens & models

Paper portfolio (fictional $1,000 — no real money)

Starting
$1,000
Total equity details ›
$2,874.52
+187.5%
Cash
$399.26
Realized P&L details ›
$2,129.15
Open positions details ›
27
Win rate (closed)
49%
145/295 trades
Exposure
86%
of equity invested
Avg ticket
$91
per open position
Fees paid
$504.41
simulated friction

Equity over time (hover for cash / invested split)

$1,000$4,242$821$2,875

Open positions over time (hover for the count)

480272026-06-182026-11-11

Realized P&L over time (hover for the trade behind each step)

$0$3,302+$2,129

Open positions (click a row for the reasoning & a link to Polymarket — free, already stored)

marketsideconfopenedentrynowvalueP&L $P&L %
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?why?SHORTmed2026-07-280.680.88$156+$35.56+30%
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most heawhy?SHORTmed2026-10-140.760.72$114-$6.40-5%
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?why?SHORThigh2026-10-180.650.74$137+$16.62+14%
Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?why?LONGmed2026-10-180.830.81$117-$2.87-2%
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by why?LONGhigh2026-10-200.370.37$120+$0.00+0%
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?why?LONGlow2026-10-250.300.35$12+$1.53+15%
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by Decembwhy?SHORTmed2026-10-260.830.85$122+$2.15+2%
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?why?SHORTmed2026-10-300.720.84$6+$0.91+18%
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?why?SHORTmed2026-10-300.310.31$5+$0.16+3%
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?why?LONGmed2026-10-310.450.40$79-$8.87-10%
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take plwhy?SHORThigh2026-11-020.430.38$106-$13.95-12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November?why?SHORTmed2026-11-030.820.80$21-$0.52-2%
Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?why?SHORTmed2026-11-030.910.96$125+$5.87+5%
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?why?LONGmed2026-11-060.230.21$110-$10.43-9%
Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December?why?SHORThigh2026-11-060.920.91$94-$1.57-2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?why?SHORTmed2026-11-060.910.97$16+$1.07+7%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championshipwhy?SHORTmed2026-11-080.240.23$118-$2.50-2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in November?why?LONGmed2026-11-090.090.08$114-$6.14-5%
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Electionwhy?SHORTmed2026-11-090.320.32$97+$0.00+0%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?why?SHORThigh2026-11-090.540.51$111-$8.81-7%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 30?why?SHORTlow2026-11-100.360.33$108-$11.51-10%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in November?why?SHORTmed2026-11-100.790.88$42+$4.29+11%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?why?SHORTmed2026-11-100.270.34$151+$31.11+26%
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?why?SHORThigh2026-11-100.080.07$89-$5.94-6%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?why?SHORTmed2026-11-110.640.64$120+$0.00+0%
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?why?LONGmed2026-11-110.210.21$94+$0.00+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?why?LONGmed2026-11-110.270.27$94+$0.00+0%

P&L by open position (hover for detail, click to open)

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?+$36Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31+$31Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by Decemb+$17Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?+$6Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in November?+$4Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product b+$2Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?+$2Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November+$1Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?+$1Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?+$0Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic mee+$0Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential +$0Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by Dece+$0Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?+$0Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?+$0Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November?-$1Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of Decembe-$2Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Cham-$2Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?-$3Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?-$6Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in November?-$6Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the -$6US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?-$9Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?-$9Iran full airspace closure by December 31?-$10US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 30?-$12Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting-$14

Position mix (by current value — hover a slice for the market)

27open

Distributions (open positions, by current value; industry & country are best-effort keyword guesses)

By industry
Geopolitics / Conflict5 · $628
Crypto6 · $512
Politics / Elections4 · $373
Tech / AI3 · $335
Other5 · $285
Science / Space2 · $220
Sports2 · $123
By country
Global / Other16 · $1,280
Iran6 · $711
Ukraine2 · $156
United States1 · $125
China1 · $114
Russia1 · $89
By confidence
med19 · $1,698
high6 · $657
low2 · $120
By side
SHORT19 · $1,737
LONG8 · $738

Movements (most recent first — click a row for the reasoning)

when (UTC)actionsidemarketpriceP&Lwhy
2026-11-11 04:43BUYLONGWill Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026why?0.27entry
2026-11-11 04:43BUYLONGWill Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2why?0.21entry
2026-11-11 04:43BUYSHORTWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by why?0.64entry
2026-11-11 04:43SELLSHORTNothing Ever Happens: 2026why?0.06-22.39stop_loss
2026-11-11 04:43SELLSHORTWill Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump adminwhy?0.94+13.03edge_closed
2026-11-10 22:55BUYSHORTTrump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?why?0.08entry
2026-11-10 22:55SELLSHORTWill Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?why?0.11+95.82take_profit
2026-11-10 22:55SELLLONGJosh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?why?0.10-45.99stop_loss
2026-11-10 22:55SELLSHORTWill Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026?why?0.97+35.08edge_closed
2026-11-10 22:55SELLLONGIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?why?0.23-30.90stop_loss
2026-11-10 14:27BUYSHORTWill Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by Decembewhy?0.27entry
2026-11-10 14:27BUYSHORTWill Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?why?0.06entry
2026-11-10 14:27SELLSHORTWill Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November?why?0.22-23.54stop_loss
2026-11-10 14:27SELLSHORTWill Bitcoin reach $82,500 in November?why?0.80+35.50edge_closed
2026-11-10 14:27SELLLONGAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?why?0.97+30.40edge_closed
2026-11-10 01:19BUYSHORTWill Ethereum reach $2,500 in November?why?0.79entry
2026-11-10 01:19BUYSHORTUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 30?why?0.36entry
2026-11-10 01:19SELLLONGUS imports Russian diesel by November 15?why?0.03-43.79stop_loss
2026-11-10 01:19SELLLONGWill Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen by Novewhy?0.34-37.20stop_loss
2026-11-09 15:18BUYSHORTWill Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November?why?0.38entry
2026-11-09 15:18BUYSHORTUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?why?0.54entry
2026-11-09 15:18SETTLESHORTChennai Open: Janice Tjen vs Magda Linettewhy?0.00+27.90resolved
2026-11-09 15:18SELLSHORTUS Government removes public access to a major Cwhy?0.93+16.51edge_closed
2026-11-09 04:45BUYSHORTChennai Open: Janice Tjen vs Magda Linettewhy?0.35entry
2026-11-09 04:45SELLSHORTWill Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?why?0.84+0.46rotated
2026-11-09 04:45BUYSHORTWill Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidentwhy?0.32entry
2026-11-09 04:45BUYLONGWill Ethereum dip to $1,600 in November?why?0.09entry
2026-11-09 04:45BUYLONGJosh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?why?0.16entry
2026-11-09 04:45BUYSHORTWill Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026?why?0.74entry
2026-11-09 04:45BUYLONGUS imports Russian diesel by November 15?why?0.05entry

Model vs. market (the underlying forecasting test)

Brier score (lower is better)
model 0.135market 0.087market ahead
Hypothetical P&L (paper — $100/bet when |edge| > 0.1)
bets 246P&L $-3,146ROI -12.8%

Open predictions (sorted by edge size)

questionmodelmarketedgeconfresolves
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?0.970.06+0.91high2027-01-01
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?0.950.06+0.89high2027-01-01
Nothing Ever Happens: 20260.050.90-0.85med2026-12-31
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?0.060.88-0.81high2026-12-31
Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?0.970.16+0.81high2026-12-31
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country?0.680.01+0.67med2027-01-01
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?0.970.34+0.62high2026-10-31
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?0.960.35+0.61high2026-12-31
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?0.970.37+0.60high2026-12-31
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?0.370.97-0.60med2027-01-05
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?0.030.56-0.53high2027-01-01
Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 30.750.23+0.52med2026-12-31
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?0.070.57-0.50high2027-01-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?0.350.81-0.46low2026-11-16
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?0.740.30+0.44med2027-01-01
Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?0.350.79-0.44med2027-01-01
Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?0.740.30+0.43med2026-11-30
Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?0.980.55+0.43high2027-01-01
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?0.040.46-0.42high2026-11-15
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?0.600.19+0.41med2027-01-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?0.220.60-0.39med2026-11-30
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?0.740.36+0.38med2027-01-01
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?0.621.00-0.38med2027-01-01
Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?0.270.64-0.36med2026-11-21
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?0.800.45+0.36med2027-01-01
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?0.480.82-0.34med2026-11-16
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 30?0.300.64-0.34low2026-11-30
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen by November 30?0.820.49+0.32med2026-12-01
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?0.040.35-0.32high2026-11-16
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?0.040.35-0.31high2027-01-01
Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?0.520.83-0.31med2026-12-31
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?0.250.56-0.31med2026-11-29
US imports Russian diesel by December 31?0.910.60+0.31med2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?0.400.70-0.30med2027-01-05
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?0.550.85-0.30med2026-11-29
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?0.040.33-0.29med2026-09-30
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?0.600.33+0.27low2026-12-01
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?0.570.30+0.27low2026-12-01
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?0.210.47-0.26med2026-11-29
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?0.200.45-0.25med2027-01-01
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?0.840.59+0.24med2026-12-01
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?0.670.91-0.24med2027-01-05
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?0.060.28-0.22med2027-01-01
Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?0.720.94-0.22med2026-11-26
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?0.520.30+0.22low2026-11-29
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?0.140.35-0.21med2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?0.170.37-0.20med2027-01-01
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?0.350.16+0.19low2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?0.170.36-0.19med2027-01-05
Blue wave in 2026?0.670.85-0.18med2027-01-05
Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?0.820.64+0.18med2027-01-01
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch?0.270.09+0.18med2027-01-01
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?0.570.74-0.18med2026-11-04
US imports Russian diesel by November 15?0.220.05+0.17med2026-11-16
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?0.800.97-0.17med2026-12-01
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?0.280.12+0.17med2026-12-31
Will Lamine Yamal finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?0.340.17+0.17med2027-01-01
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?0.370.20+0.17med2026-11-16
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?0.170.01+0.16low2027-01-01
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan l0.670.82-0.15med2026-11-29
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in November?0.240.39-0.15med2026-12-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?0.220.36-0.14low2026-12-16
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship?0.620.76-0.14med2027-01-01
Blue tsunami in 2026?0.460.60-0.14med2027-01-05
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?0.900.77+0.14high2026-12-10
Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?0.100.23-0.13med2026-11-30
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?0.871.00-0.13med2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in November?0.210.34-0.13med2026-12-01
Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?0.800.93-0.12med2026-12-26
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November?0.500.62-0.12med2026-12-01
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?0.130.01+0.12med2026-12-09
Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?0.220.10+0.12med2027-01-01
Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026?0.140.26-0.12med2026-11-21
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?0.570.68-0.11low2026-10-25
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?0.220.11+0.11med2026-11-30
Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?0.860.97-0.11high2027-01-01
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?0.090.20-0.11med2027-01-01
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in November?0.110.21-0.10med2026-12-01
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November?0.140.24-0.10med2026-12-01
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?0.630.73-0.10med2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November?0.060.15-0.10med2026-12-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in November?0.140.05+0.09med2026-12-01
GTA VI released by November 30?0.880.97-0.09med2026-12-01
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?0.120.03+0.09med2026-12-01
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in November?0.180.09+0.09med2026-12-01
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?0.320.23+0.09med2027-01-01
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?0.420.33+0.09low2026-12-01
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?0.590.68-0.09med2027-01-17
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?0.610.53+0.08med2026-11-29
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government election0.160.24-0.08med2026-11-29
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?0.270.35-0.08med2026-12-31
GTA 6 launch postponed again?0.120.04+0.08med2026-11-20
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?0.080.00+0.08med2026-12-01
Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?0.910.83+0.08med2027-01-01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?0.420.49-0.08low2026-11-23
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?0.080.15-0.07med2027-01-01
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?0.080.01+0.07med2027-01-01
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?0.080.01+0.07med2027-01-01
Will Carter Jensen win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?0.070.00+0.07high2026-12-19
Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?0.020.09-0.07med2027-01-02
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?0.030.10-0.07med2026-12-01
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?0.080.14-0.06med2027-01-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?0.830.77+0.06med2026-12-09
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond?0.070.01+0.06med2027-01-01
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?0.270.33-0.06med2027-01-01
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?0.060.00+0.06high2027-01-01
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?0.280.23+0.06med2026-12-31
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?0.100.04+0.06med2027-01-01
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?0.170.12+0.06low2027-01-01
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?0.350.29+0.05med2026-10-28
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?0.050.10-0.05med2027-01-01
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?0.070.12-0.05med2027-01-01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?0.300.24+0.05med2026-12-31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?0.050.10-0.05high2026-11-16
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?0.960.91+0.05high2026-11-04
Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December?0.030.08-0.05high2026-12-31
Will Solana reach $140 by December 31, 2026?0.110.06+0.05med2027-01-01
Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award?0.060.01+0.05high2026-11-13
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?0.040.09-0.05med2026-12-09
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?0.050.00+0.05med2026-12-01
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in November?0.070.02+0.05med2026-12-01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?0.350.40-0.05med2026-11-23
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?0.220.27-0.05low2026-12-01
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?0.100.06+0.05med2027-01-01
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?0.480.43+0.04med2027-01-01
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?0.140.18-0.04med2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?0.370.33+0.04med2027-01-01
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?0.060.02+0.04med2027-01-01
Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026?0.090.05+0.04med2027-01-01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?0.030.07-0.04high2027-01-05
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch?0.190.15+0.04med2027-01-01
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?0.100.06+0.04med2027-01-01
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?0.050.09-0.04med2027-01-01
JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?0.110.15-0.04med2026-11-30
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.040.00+0.04high2027-01-08
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?0.040.00+0.04high2026-11-16
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?0.930.97-0.04med2027-01-01
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?0.100.06+0.04med2027-01-01
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?0.040.00+0.04high2027-01-01
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?0.040.00+0.04high2027-01-01
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?0.040.00+0.04high2027-01-01
Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day?0.040.00+0.04med2027-01-01
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?0.040.00+0.04med2027-01-01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?0.060.02+0.04med2026-12-09
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?0.930.90+0.04high2027-01-08
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?0.330.29+0.04med2027-01-01
Will T1 win Worlds 2026?0.200.17+0.04med2026-11-29
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?0.050.01+0.04med2027-01-01
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?0.100.14-0.04med2027-01-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?0.030.07-0.04high2026-12-01
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in November?0.090.06+0.03med2026-12-01
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch?0.050.02+0.03med2027-01-01
Iran leadership change by November 30?0.070.04+0.03med2026-12-01
Will Team Liquid win Worlds 2026?0.040.01+0.03med2026-11-29
Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026?0.040.01+0.03med2026-11-29
Will Top Esports win Worlds 2026?0.040.01+0.03med2026-11-29
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?0.040.07-0.03high2027-01-01
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win LoL Worlds 2026?0.070.04+0.03med2027-01-01
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?0.070.04+0.03med2027-01-01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?0.050.08-0.03high2026-12-01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?0.120.09+0.03med2026-12-01
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?0.090.06+0.03med2027-01-01
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?0.040.01+0.03high2027-01-01
Will XRP reach $2.00 in November?0.040.01+0.03high2026-12-01
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Finland?0.030.00+0.03high2027-01-01
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?0.040.07-0.03high2027-01-01
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?0.030.00+0.03med2026-10-28
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November?0.060.03+0.03med2026-12-01
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?0.030.00+0.03high2026-12-01
Will a team from LCS (North America) win LoL Worlds 2026?0.040.01+0.03high2027-01-01
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland?0.030.00+0.03med2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in November?0.040.01+0.03med2026-12-01
Viktor Orbán arrested by...?0.210.24-0.03med2027-01-01
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?0.030.00+0.03high2027-01-01
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?0.070.04+0.03med2027-01-01
Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?0.820.84-0.03med2026-11-30
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?0.240.21+0.02med2026-10-24
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November?0.170.20-0.02med2026-12-01
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?0.970.99-0.02high2027-01-01
Will G2 Esports win Worlds 2026?0.070.05+0.02med2026-11-29
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?0.060.04+0.02high2027-01-01
Will Team Secret Whales win Worlds 2026?0.030.00+0.02med2026-11-29
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?0.030.05-0.02high2027-01-05
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?0.080.06+0.02med2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in November?0.040.02+0.02med2026-12-01
Will LYON win Worlds 2026?0.030.00+0.02med2026-11-29
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?0.050.07-0.02high2027-01-05
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?0.270.25+0.02med2026-12-01
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?0.040.02+0.02high2027-01-01
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by December 31?0.030.05-0.02high2027-01-01
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?0.020.00+0.02high2026-12-31
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?0.020.00+0.02med2027-01-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in November?0.030.05-0.02high2026-12-01
Will Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31, 2026?0.010.03-0.02high2027-01-01
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?0.020.00+0.02high2026-09-13
Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?0.020.00+0.02high2026-09-13
Will Aaron Kahng win The Bachelorette Season 22?0.020.00+0.02high2026-12-01
Will Movistar KOI win Worlds 2026?0.020.00+0.02med2026-11-29
Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?0.020.00+0.02high2027-01-25
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?0.020.00+0.02high2027-01-01
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?0.020.00+0.02high2026-12-31
Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026?0.050.03+0.02med2027-01-01
Will Zac McGraw win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?0.020.00+0.02high2026-11-12
Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV?0.060.04+0.02low2026-12-26
Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?0.200.18+0.02med2026-11-29
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?0.180.20-0.02med2026-12-09
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?0.720.70+0.02med2026-12-09
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?0.320.30+0.02med2027-01-01
Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?0.120.10+0.01med2026-12-01
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?0.330.34-0.01med2027-01-01
Will a team from CBLOL (Brazil) win LoL Worlds 2026?0.010.00+0.01high2027-01-01
Israeli Knesset election annulled?0.030.04-0.01high2027-01-01
Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026?0.040.03+0.01med2026-11-29
Israel Election: Arab party disqualified?0.030.02+0.01high2026-11-30
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?0.030.04-0.01high2027-01-01
Will Anyone's Legend win Worlds 2026?0.070.06+0.01med2026-11-29
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?0.950.96-0.01high2027-01-01
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?0.150.16-0.01med2026-11-15
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?0.030.04-0.01med2027-01-01
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?0.030.02+0.01high2027-01-01
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?0.200.19+0.01med2026-12-09
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?0.620.63-0.01med2027-01-01
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?0.220.21+0.01med2026-12-01
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?0.870.88-0.01high2027-01-01
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?0.040.05-0.01high2026-11-01
Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026?0.050.06-0.01med2027-01-01
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?0.010.00+0.01high2026-12-06
Will Eury Perez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?0.010.00+0.01high2026-11-12
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus?0.010.00+0.01high2027-01-01
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?0.020.03-0.01high2027-01-01
Macron out by December 31, 2026?0.040.05-0.01high2027-01-01
Will Anna-Karin Hatt be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?0.010.00+0.01high2026-09-13
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?0.010.00+0.01high2026-12-31
Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?0.010.00+0.01high2026-12-31
Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31?0.010.00+0.01high2027-01-03
Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?0.890.88+0.01high2026-12-19
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?0.010.00+0.01high2027-01-01
Is Earth flat?0.000.01-0.01high2027-01-01
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?0.010.00+0.01high2026-12-31
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?0.010.02-0.01high2027-01-01
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?0.030.02+0.01high2027-01-01
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?0.040.03+0.01high2027-01-01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?0.580.58-0.01med2026-11-16
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?0.050.04+0.01med2027-01-01
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?0.120.12-0.01med2026-12-31
Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz0.220.21+0.01med2026-11-11
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in November?0.070.07+0.01med2026-12-01
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in November?0.180.17+0.01med2026-12-01
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?0.010.01+0.01high2026-12-31
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?0.060.06+0.00med2027-01-01
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?0.090.09+0.00med2027-01-01
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in November?0.170.17-0.00med2026-12-01
Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?0.170.17-0.00med2027-01-01
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?0.010.00+0.00high2027-01-01
Will D.C. United win the 2026 MLS Cup?0.010.00+0.00high2027-01-01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in November?0.020.02+0.00med2026-12-01
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?0.040.04-0.00med2027-01-01
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?0.040.04+0.00med2027-01-25
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?0.010.01+0.00high2027-01-01
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?0.010.00+0.00high2026-09-13
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?0.970.97-0.00high2027-01-01
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?0.010.00+0.00high2027-01-01
Epic Games IPO before 2027?0.020.02+0.00high2027-01-01
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?0.040.04+0.00high2027-01-01
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31?0.010.01+0.00high2027-01-03
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?0.000.00-0.00high2027-01-01
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?0.010.01+0.00high2027-01-01
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?0.030.03-0.00high2026-12-31
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?0.040.04-0.00high2027-01-01
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?0.040.04-0.00med2027-01-01
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?0.020.02+0.00high2027-01-01
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?0.010.01+0.00high2027-01-01
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?0.960.96-0.00high2027-01-01
Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?0.060.06-0.00med2026-11-29
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?0.340.34+0.00med2027-01-01
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?0.060.06+0.00med2027-01-01
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?0.070.07+0.00med2027-01-01

Resolved predictions

questionmodelmarketresultcloser
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.010.00NOmarket
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.060.02NOmarket
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.000.00NOmarket
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.030.01NOmarket
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.010.01NOmarket
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.010.00NOmarket
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?0.070.04NOmarket
Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.000.00NOmarket
Will Jelena Ostapenko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?0.040.00NOmarket
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?0.050.02NOmarket
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?0.070.36NOmodel
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?0.560.520.50market
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?0.100.09NOmarket
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.010.00NOmarket
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?0.670.520.50market
Will Ashlyn Krueger be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?0.000.00NOmarket
Trump out as President before GTA VI?0.490.510.50market
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026?0.380.34NOmarket
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?0.010.00NOmarket
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?0.010.00NOmarket
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?0.020.01NOmarket
Will Ugo Humbert be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?0.010.00NOmarket
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.040.03NOmarket
Will Paula Badosa be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?0.020.00NOmarket
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?0.650.75YESmarket
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?0.570.56YESmodel
Will Francisco Cerúndolo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?0.010.00NOmarket
Will Julian Sahasrabudhe win the 2026 Fields Medal?0.220.23NOmodel
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?0.010.00NOmarket
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?0.010.00NOmarket
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?0.040.00NOmarket
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?0.030.00NOmarket
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?0.030.01NOmarket
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?0.020.01NOmarket
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C0.010.00NOmarket
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.650.73YESmarket
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?0.140.19NOmodel
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026?0.150.06NOmarket
Will Linda Nosková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?0.040.01YESmodel
Will D.K. Metcalf be traded?0.180.04NOmarket
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?0.320.46NOmodel
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.020.00NOmarket
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.200.29YESmarket
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?0.040.07NOmodel
Will Bradley Barcola be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.030.00NOmarket
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.220.36NOmodel
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?0.440.86YESmarket
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?0.040.10NOmodel
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?0.340.34NOmarket
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.981.00YESmarket
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?0.050.03NOmarket
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?0.030.00NOmarket
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?0.070.07NOmodel
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?0.030.00NOmarket
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?0.220.00NOmarket
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?0.080.00NOmarket
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?0.280.28YESmarket
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?0.720.93YESmarket
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?0.040.09NOmodel
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?0.020.00NOmarket
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?0.040.10NOmodel
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?0.180.11NOmarket
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.010.00NOmarket
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.020.00NOmarket
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.040.03NOmarket
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?0.420.35NOmarket
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?0.090.04NOmarket
Will McCartney Kessler be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?0.010.00NOmarket
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?0.050.00NOmarket
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?0.060.04NOmarket
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?0.030.00NOmarket
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?0.090.00NOmarket
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?0.070.05NOmarket
Will Elina Svitolina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?0.030.03NOmarket
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.370.48YESmarket
Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?0.010.00NOmarket
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?0.210.23NOmodel
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?0.080.07NOmarket
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June?0.130.56NOmodel
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?0.020.00NOmarket
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.010.01NOmarket
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.010.01NOmodel
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.000.00NOmarket
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.040.03NOmarket
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.040.01NOmarket
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?0.730.90YESmarket
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.180.18NOtie
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?0.040.02NOmarket
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?0.700.72NOmodel
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?0.040.04NOmodel
Will Laura Siegemund be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?0.010.00NOmarket
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.180.07NOmarket
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?0.040.11NOmodel
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?0.220.30NOmodel
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?0.270.28YESmarket
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?0.080.25NOmodel
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?0.970.06NOmarket
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.050.07NOmodel
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?0.210.18NOmarket
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?0.980.17YESmodel
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?0.730.83YESmarket
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?0.900.88YESmodel
Will Marin Čilić be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?0.010.00NOmarket
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.020.01NOmarket
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.010.00NOmarket
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.150.21NOmodel
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?0.700.88YESmarket
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?0.820.62YESmodel
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?0.060.06NOmodel
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.030.01NOmarket
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.010.00NOmarket
Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?0.180.35YESmarket
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?0.320.68YESmarket
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?0.170.06NOmarket
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.260.35NOmodel
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.040.07NOmodel
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.030.03NOmarket
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.090.06NOmarket
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.070.06NOmarket
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?0.100.10NOmarket
Over $15M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?0.320.15YESmodel
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.030.00NOmarket
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.230.26NOmodel
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?0.670.17NOmarket
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?0.010.00NOmarket
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?0.180.17NOmarket
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.030.02NOmarket
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.000.00NOmarket
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.010.01NOmarket
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.000.00NOmarket
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.020.00NOmarket
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?0.060.11NOmodel
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?0.050.03NOmarket
Over $20M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?0.320.97YESmarket
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.030.01NOmarket
Trump out as President by July 31?0.020.01NOmarket
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.260.36NOmodel
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?0.900.95YESmarket
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.090.03NOmarket
Will Declan Rice win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.020.00NOmarket
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?0.160.33NOmodel
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?0.060.06NOmarket
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?0.180.06NOmarket
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.160.13YESmodel
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?0.810.90YESmarket
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?0.110.07NOmarket
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?0.270.91YESmarket
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?0.090.81NOmodel
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?0.280.23NOmarket
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?0.030.00NOmarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?0.060.10NOmodel
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?0.110.01NOmarket
Over $30M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?0.620.63NOmodel
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?0.180.12NOmarket
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?0.380.69YESmarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?0.130.29NOmodel
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?0.860.93YESmarket
Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0.380.08NOmarket
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?0.850.86YESmarket
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?0.130.05NOmarket
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?0.020.02NOmarket
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?0.030.09NOmodel
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?0.050.18NOmodel
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?0.220.05NOmarket
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?0.290.48YESmarket
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?0.040.02NOmarket
Will Maxx Crosby play for Tennessee Titans next?0.020.00NOmarket
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?0.220.00NOmarket
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?0.140.04NOmarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?0.040.01NOmarket
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?0.380.02NOmarket
Will Maxx Crosby play for Carolina Panthers next?0.120.00NOmarket
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?0.040.00NOmarket
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?0.570.48NOmarket
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?0.040.03NOmarket
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?0.620.02NOmarket
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Braz0.040.01NOmarket
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?0.220.21NOmarket
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 TOUR Championship?0.020.02NOmarket
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?0.040.10NOmodel
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?0.060.52YESmarket
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?0.210.23NOmodel
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?0.120.29NOmodel
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Will Jordan Walker have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?0.030.01NOmarket
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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?0.150.48YESmarket
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Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians0.390.42NOmodel
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?0.350.36YESmarket
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?0.520.75YESmarket
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian pre0.020.00NOmarket
Will Solana dip to $60 in July?0.030.02NOmarket
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?0.040.01NOmarket
Segovia: Ivan Marrero vs Facundo Mena0.441.00YESmarket
Hamburg European Open: Tessa Brockmann vs Elsa Jacquemot0.220.36NOmodel
Hamburg European Open: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Nastasja Schunk0.800.81YESmarket
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year?0.570.81YESmarket
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?0.030.01NOmarket
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?0.780.88YESmarket
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by July 31, 2026?0.180.02NOmarket
US x China tariff agreement by July 31?0.090.02NOmarket
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?0.870.89YESmarket
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?0.680.01NOmarket
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees0.390.45NOmodel
Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?0.020.00NOmarket
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Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?0.270.93YESmarket
Tampere: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Otto Virtanen0.270.43NOmodel
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31?0.090.00NOmarket
Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026?0.140.05NOmarket
Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?0.030.00NOmarket
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?0.020.01NOmarket
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?0.010.01NOmarket
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?0.930.98YESmarket
Will Isaac del Toro win the 2026 Tour De France?0.020.01NOmarket
Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presid0.020.01NOmarket
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?0.630.53YESmodel
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Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?0.220.09NOmarket
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country by0.180.00NOmarket
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?0.350.04NOmarket
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?0.020.00NOmarket
Will the Cleveland Guardians win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season?0.010.01NOtie
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?0.020.02NOmodel
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?0.060.15NOmodel
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Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?0.010.00NOmarket
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open?0.060.02NOmarket
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?0.070.08YESmarket
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?0.030.01NOmarket
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.100.14NOmodel
Hamburg European Open: Simona Waltert vs Mayar Sherif0.300.41NOmodel
Generali Open: Sebastian Baez vs Arthur Rinderknech0.400.53YESmarket
Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?0.020.02NOmarket
Generali Open: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier0.630.56YESmodel
Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres Burruchaga0.520.00NOmarket
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Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?0.110.09YESmodel
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ODI Series Sri Lanka vs Pakistan, Women: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan0.580.39NOmarket
Generali Open: Mariano Navone vs Quentin Halys0.620.66NOmodel
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?0.920.99YESmarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in July?0.920.88YESmodel
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?0.280.60YESmarket
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parlia0.880.97YESmarket
Hamburg European Open: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Leyre Romero Gormaz0.641.00YESmarket
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Livesport Prague Open: Mai Hontama vs Lilli Tagger0.380.13NOmarket
Hamburg European Open: Paula Badosa vs Panna Udvardy0.630.59YESmodel
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Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open?0.050.01NOmarket
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,500 in July?0.010.01NOmodel
Global Super League: Lahore Qalandars vs Perth Scorchers XI0.531.00YESmarket
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?0.140.03NOmarket
Will Remco Evenepoel win the 2026 Tour De France?0.030.03NOmodel
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?0.830.31YESmodel
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's US Open?0.030.01NOmarket
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated?0.030.00NOmarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?0.970.06NOmarket
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?0.100.07NOmarket
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's US Open?0.030.01NOmarket
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in July?0.040.06NOmodel
Iran leadership change by July 31?0.170.04NOmarket
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31?0.100.06NOmarket
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?0.280.44NOmodel
Iran leadership change by September 30?0.080.14NOmodel
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?0.870.97YESmarket
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?0.020.00NOmarket
Hamburg European Open: Mayar Sherif vs Paula Badosa0.410.79YESmarket
Livesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova0.690.00NOmarket
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?0.110.06NOmarket
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?0.030.00NOmarket
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by July 31?0.070.02NOmarket
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?0.970.96YESmodel
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?0.210.01NOmarket
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?0.140.42YESmarket
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?0.140.01NOmarket
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?0.220.01NOmarket
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?0.130.43NOmodel
Will Holger Rune win the 2026 Men's US Open?0.020.00NOmarket
Generali Open: Alexander Bublik vs Quentin Halys0.640.68NOmodel
Over $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?0.120.99YESmarket
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?0.670.79YESmarket
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?0.050.03NOmarket
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies0.540.54YESmodel
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Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?0.120.07NOmarket
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays0.440.47NOmodel
Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Mei Yamaguchi0.821.00YESmarket
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?0.050.00NOmarket
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?0.920.28NOmarket
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Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?0.070.12NOmodel
The Hundred: Welsh Fire vs MI London0.410.61YESmarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?0.090.36YESmarket
Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Miguel Tobon vs Bernard Tomic0.270.84NOmodel
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?0.150.18NOmodel
Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?0.220.03NOmarket
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?0.350.00NOmarket
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?0.380.35YESmodel
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?0.220.07NOmarket
Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx0.400.41YESmarket
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Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July?0.050.05NOmodel
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?0.060.00NOmarket
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Qinwen Zheng0.570.42YESmodel
Bloomfield Hills: Alex Michelsen vs Jacob Fearnley0.651.00YESmarket
The Hundred: Manchester Super Giants vs Birmingham Phoenix0.531.00YESmarket
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?0.090.02NOmarket
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?0.010.00NOmarket
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?0.000.01NOmodel
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?0.060.01NOmarket
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Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Tallon Griekspoor0.480.42YESmodel
Bonn: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Jamie Mackenzie0.800.27NOmarket
Targu Mures: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Sara Sorribes Tormo0.420.70NOmodel
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Will St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 NL Central title?0.050.01NOmarket
Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 NL Central title?0.030.00NOmarket
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?0.400.59YESmarket
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?0.350.82YESmarket
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Tommy Paul0.271.00YESmarket
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds0.770.34YESmodel
T20 Lanka Premier League: Jaffna Kings vs Colombo Kaps0.871.00YESmarket
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas0.320.56YESmarket
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?0.420.46NOmodel
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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?0.450.56YESmarket
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?0.010.00NOmarket
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?0.030.10NOmodel
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.130.76YESmarket
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?0.050.01NOmarket
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?0.020.04NOmodel
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?0.140.34NOmodel
Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.010.00NOmarket
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?0.730.22NOmarket
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?0.060.01NOmarket
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?0.190.26NOmodel
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?0.110.07NOmarket
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?0.070.07NOmarket
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?0.970.72YESmodel
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?0.140.61NOmodel
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?0.030.03NOmodel
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?0.830.11NOmarket
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?0.070.01NOmarket
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?0.070.18NOmodel
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?0.040.86YESmarket
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?0.080.09NOmodel
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?0.100.01NOmarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?0.960.02NOmarket
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?0.880.78YESmodel
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?0.440.61YESmarket
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds0.480.83YESmarket
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's US Open?0.000.04NOmodel
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?0.050.94NOmodel
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Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?0.620.15YESmodel
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?0.030.01NOmarket
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays0.440.07NOmarket
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?0.020.01NOmarket
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?0.040.01NOmarket
Trump out as President by August 31?0.020.01NOmarket
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?0.720.77NOmodel
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Taylor Fritz vs Rafael Jodar0.630.95YESmarket
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?0.150.29NOmodel
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?0.050.76YESmarket
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?0.080.03NOmarket
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?0.040.01NOmarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?0.020.00NOmarket
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs0.520.32NOmarket
Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?0.070.00NOmarket
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?0.040.03NOmarket
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?0.700.86YESmarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?0.040.02NOmarket
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?0.940.85YESmodel
National Bank Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi0.410.90YESmarket
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Men's US Open?0.010.00NOmarket
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kansas City Royals0.540.33YESmodel
US Open, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Jack Pinnington Jones0.591.00YESmarket
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?0.300.58NOmodel
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?0.120.07YESmodel
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?0.770.93YESmarket
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in August?0.100.02NOmarket
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?0.110.10NOmarket
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?0.020.10NOmodel
US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Dalibor Svrcina0.950.99YESmarket
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves0.420.10NOmarket
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals0.510.47NOmarket
US Open ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Karen Khachanov0.550.00NOmarket
Iran leadership change by August 31?0.070.04NOmarket
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles0.560.84NOmodel
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds0.510.99YESmarket
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.960.98YESmarket
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers0.460.00NOmarket
US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz0.310.23YESmodel
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?0.020.00NOmarket
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala0.580.64NOmodel
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series?0.040.04NOmodel
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?0.010.00NOmarket
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays0.530.23NOmarket
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?0.170.00NOmarket
Will James Harden play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27?0.040.00NOmarket
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?0.030.00NOmarket
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers0.440.83YESmarket
Will Kansas City Royals win the 2026 American League Championship Series?0.010.00NOmarket
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs0.460.09NOmarket
National Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Gabriel Diallo0.580.60YESmarket
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?0.020.00NOmarket
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian preside0.100.31NOmodel
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?0.030.01NOmarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?0.120.04NOmarket
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?0.100.02NOmarket
Will Rodri stay at Manchester City?0.220.09NOmarket
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?0.090.09NOmarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?0.300.09NOmarket
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?0.580.32NOmarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in September?0.960.89YESmodel
Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026?0.120.01NOmarket
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?0.420.12NOmarket
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?0.930.12NOmarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?0.990.04NOmarket
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s US Open?0.110.05NOmarket
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?0.620.64NOmodel
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers0.320.28NOmarket
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by Se0.320.23NOmarket
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?0.910.10NOmarket
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.720.88YESmarket
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?0.020.00NOmarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?0.070.51NOmodel
Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles0.370.41NOmodel
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?0.970.68YESmodel
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?0.620.94YESmarket
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?0.870.91YESmarket
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?0.280.20NOmarket
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?0.090.29NOmodel
The Memphis Classic: Darja Vidmanova vs Katie Volynets0.500.61YESmarket
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?0.330.09NOmarket
Will Naomi Osaka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?0.110.04NOmarket
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in August?0.270.14NOmarket
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the0.450.84YESmarket
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq by September 30, 2026?0.070.01NOmarket
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?0.060.00NOmarket
Cincinnati Open: Alex Michelsen vs Jesper de Jong0.750.81YESmarket
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?0.970.89YESmodel
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?0.100.07NOmarket
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?0.920.91YESmodel
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?0.180.05NOmarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?0.200.34YESmarket
US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Blockx0.600.61YESmarket
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?0.620.88YESmarket
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?0.180.33YESmarket
Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?0.040.02NOmarket
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?0.780.44NOmarket
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in August?0.890.04NOmarket
Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies0.620.82YESmarket
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September0.030.01NOmarket
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?0.060.00NOmarket
Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2026 Men's US Open?0.040.00NOmarket
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?0.030.01NOmarket
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?0.100.34NOmodel
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?0.600.29YESmodel
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?0.220.40NOmodel
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?0.070.02NOmarket
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?0.550.14YESmodel
Brownsburg: Ugo Blanchet vs Rei Sakamoto0.380.59NOmodel
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in September?0.070.12NOmodel
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?0.140.03NOmarket
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?0.520.12NOmarket
National Bank Open: Juncheng Shang vs Andrey Rublev0.180.23YESmarket
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?0.910.07NOmarket
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?0.080.03NOmarket
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?0.130.14NOmodel
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-07-16?0.420.38NOmarket
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?0.820.82YESmarket
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?0.120.32NOmodel
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?0.060.09NOmodel
Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women’s US Open?0.160.16NOmodel
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?0.010.00NOmarket
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?0.820.60YESmodel
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?0.370.10NOmarket
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?0.050.81YESmarket
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?0.010.01NOmodel
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?0.010.00NOmarket
Will Kevin Gausman strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.010.00NOmarket
Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?0.930.94YESmarket
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?0.280.28NOmodel
Will Dallas Wings win the 2026 WNBA Finals?0.020.02NOmarket
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?0.210.14NOmarket
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?0.600.21YESmodel
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals?0.020.46NOmodel
Will Washington Mystics win the 2026 WNBA Finals?0.010.01NOmodel
NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27?0.020.02NOmodel
US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31?0.100.65NOmodel
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?0.980.43NOmarket
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)0.450.29NOmarket
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?0.970.07NOmarket
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?0.070.79YESmarket
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?0.930.46YESmodel
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?0.020.00NOmarket
Will Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals?0.060.15NOmodel
Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals?0.150.16NOmodel
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?0.020.01NOmarket
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?0.100.00NOmarket
Will Jalen Duren play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?0.020.00NOmarket
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.060.17NOmodel
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?0.820.80YESmodel
Iran leadership change by October 31?0.220.06NOmarket
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?0.330.32NOmarket
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?0.040.53NOmodel
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?0.310.88NOmodel
Will Rodrygo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?0.010.00NOmarket
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?0.970.91YESmodel
Will the Texas Rangers hit the most home runs in the 2026 MLB regular season?0.020.00NOmarket
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?0.300.80YESmarket
Will the Toronto Blue Jays hit the most home runs in the 2026 MLB regular season?0.010.00NOmarket
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-15 House seat?0.970.97YESmodel
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title?0.040.01NOmarket
Will the Miami Marlins have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular seaso0.040.00NOmarket
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31?0.080.98YESmarket
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.400.62NOmodel
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?0.650.70YESmarket
Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?0.961.00YESmarket
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?0.170.27NOmodel
Will the Republican Party win the FL-01 House seat?0.970.95YESmodel
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?0.400.41NOmodel
Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?0.030.00NOmarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in October?0.020.01NOmarket
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?0.250.06NOmarket
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?0.060.01NOmarket
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?0.130.08NOmarket
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?0.620.71YESmarket
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?0.040.00NOmarket
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?0.050.13NOmodel
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?0.970.35YESmodel
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 0.220.23NOmodel
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?0.040.10NOmodel
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?0.140.02NOmarket
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 0.030.16NOmodel
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?0.820.60NOmarket
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?0.800.96YESmarket
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.160.18NOmodel
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?0.370.12NOmarket
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?0.630.70YESmarket
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?0.010.00NOmarket
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?0.810.78YESmodel
Olbia: Stefano Travaglia vs Valentin Royer0.381.00YESmarket
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in October?0.580.89YESmarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?0.040.10NOmodel
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?0.820.91YESmarket
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?0.110.07NOmarket
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?0.280.08YESmodel
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele0.100.16YESmarket
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?0.400.05NOmarket
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?0.160.28NOmodel
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?0.070.12NOmodel
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele0.050.01NOmarket
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?0.840.92YESmarket
Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in October?0.090.09NOmarket
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?0.910.95YESmarket
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele0.010.00NOmarket
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.220.23YESmarket
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?0.790.93YESmarket
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?0.030.01NOmarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?0.030.02NOmarket
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?0.220.20YESmodel
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in October?0.450.34NOmarket
Olbia: Jacob Fearnley vs Damir Dzumhur0.520.00NOmarket
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?0.040.00NOmarket
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?0.270.43YESmarket
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?0.040.26NOmodel
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential el0.430.78NOmodel
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?0.920.95YESmarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in October?0.020.01NOmarket
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October0.630.66NOmodel
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?0.830.90YESmarket
Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in October?0.010.02NOmodel
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?0.220.41NOmodel
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?0.960.93YESmodel
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?0.570.94YESmarket
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in October?0.030.01NOmarket
Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the0.010.01NOmodel
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?0.330.38NOmodel
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?0.000.00NOmarket
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?0.030.01NOmarket
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 in October?0.380.47YESmarket
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?0.110.09NOmarket
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?0.180.07NOmarket
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?0.230.33NOmodel
Cali: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Miguel Tobon0.570.00NOmarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in October?0.020.01NOmarket
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?0.910.69NOmarket
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?0.510.46NOmarket
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House0.170.09NOmarket
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?0.340.32NOmarket
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?0.700.68YESmodel
M25 Tamworth: Blake Ellis vs Benjamin O'Connell0.570.76YESmarket
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?0.300.29NOmarket
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?0.820.15NOmarket
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?0.540.65YESmarket
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?0.480.59NOmodel
Will Lamine Yamal finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?0.210.73YESmarket
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in October?0.020.00NOmarket
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?0.180.09NOmarket
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?0.070.11YESmarket
Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Shiho Tsujioka vs Kamilla Rakhimova0.120.00NOmarket
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?0.250.70YESmarket
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?0.140.10NOmarket
Cali: Gustavo Heide vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida0.620.38NOmarket
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?0.550.67YESmarket
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?0.730.96YESmarket
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?0.200.07NOmarket
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?0.180.28NOmodel
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?0.930.90YESmodel
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?0.190.72YESmarket
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?0.090.03NOmarket
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October?0.980.46NOmarket
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?0.030.01NOmarket
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in October?0.050.04NOmarket
Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?0.280.66YESmarket
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $10M?0.380.90YESmarket
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 30.050.01NOmarket
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?0.130.30YESmarket
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?0.020.30YESmarket
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House0.570.66YESmarket
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?0.600.57NOmarket
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?0.220.21NOmarket
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?0.870.66NOmarket
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?0.220.14NOmarket
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?0.760.83YESmarket
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?0.610.84YESmarket
Seoul: Rei Sakamoto vs Billy Harris0.570.00NOmarket
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?0.140.40YESmarket
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?0.370.56YESmarket
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans w0.410.30NOmarket
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?0.720.85NOmodel
Big Bash League, Women: Brisbane Heat vs Sydney Sixers0.420.00NOmarket
Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Mattia Bellucci0.450.07NOmarket
Guangzhou Open: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Lilli Tagger0.270.28NOmodel
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Qingdao Eagles0.710.00NOmarket
Rolex Paris Masters: Novak Djokovic vs Valentin Vacherot0.700.68YESmodel
Costa do Sauipe: Facundo Acosta vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida0.620.81YESmarket
W35 Orlando, FL: Ema Burgic vs Luciana Perry0.450.75NOmodel
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?0.020.26NOmodel
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?0.050.42NOmodel
Chennai Open: Janice Tjen vs Magda Linette0.580.65NOmodel

Calibration (resolved predictions)

model prob bucketnpredictedactual
[0.0, 0.1)2660.040.04
[0.1, 0.2)910.140.16
[0.2, 0.3)550.240.29
[0.3, 0.4)420.350.36
[0.4, 0.5)380.430.38
[0.5, 0.6)360.550.54
[0.6, 0.7)340.630.66
[0.7, 0.8)220.740.73
[0.8, 0.9)270.840.78
[0.9, 1.0]420.950.71
Read-only snapshot. Refresh resolutions with python3 score.py, then re-run python3 dashboard.py.